Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Belief Updating as a Mindset
Great forecasting doesn’t come from confidence—it comes from curiosity.
“The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement.”
—Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner, Superforecasting
Great forecasting doesn’t come from confidence—it comes from curiosity.
Superforecasters treat beliefs not as identity markers, but as provisional judgments, always open to revision. That mindset—what Tetlock calls “perpetual beta”—is one of the best predictors of forecasting success.
They test their assumptions, weigh new evidence, and refine their views, again and again. As Tetlock puts it: “For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
This commitment to continual learning turns forecasting into a disciplined habit, not a one-time act.
Try it yourself:
After making a forecast, ask: What might change my mind?
Set a reminder to revisit your prediction in a week or a month.
Track what you learn and how your thinking evolves.
This isn’t just about forecasting well. It’s about thinking well.
Learn how to think like a Superforecaster. Join our May workshop!
