Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Decomposition of Complex Questions
Clear thinking about big questions starts with a clear understanding of its components.
“Unpack the question into components. Distinguish as sharply as you can between the known and unknown and leave no assumptions unscrutinized.”
—Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner, Superforecasting
It is the nature of big questions to be overwhelming. Superforecasters approach these by breaking them down first.
When faced with incredibly tough questions, from market fluctuations to tech to erratic human behavior, Superforecasters begin by “decomposing” a problem, splitting it into smaller, more manageable parts. What do we know for sure? What’s uncertain? What hinges on what?
This technique will guide you through the fog of complexity and help you arrive at more accurate forecasts.
As Tetlock pointedly suggests, “Decompose the problem into its knowable and unknowable parts. Flush ignorance into the open.”
Tool tip:
Break the big question into sub-questions.
Estimate each one independently.
Recombine them to form your overall forecast.
Clear thinking about big questions starts with a clear understanding of its components.
Practice this at GJOpen.com or master this technique and many others at our September workshop!
