Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Nuance Matters

Just as a painter learns to discern subtle shades, a trained forecaster learns to perceive varying degrees of uncertainty.

“Nuance matters. The more degrees of uncertainty you can distinguish, the better a forecaster you are likely to be.”

—Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner, Superforecasting

Nuance matters.

Rather than saying “probably” or “unlikely,” Superforecasters assign probabilities—60%, not just “maybe.” Why? Because nuanced forecasting enables them to quantify their judgments, track accuracy, and learn over time.

Thinking in probabilities is a trained skill. Just as a painter learns to discern subtle shades, a forecaster learns to perceive varying degrees of uncertainty. Here practice is key.

As Tetlock writes: “Forecasters who practice get better at distinguishing finer degrees of uncertainty, just as artists get better at distinguishing subtler shades of gray.”

The more precisely you can express your uncertainty, the more you can calibrate your judgment—and improve it.

Tool tip: Start by turning vague expectations into clear percentages. Are you 70% confident or 40%? Being specific is how improvement begins.

Learn how to think like a Superforecaster. Join our May workshop!