Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Getting the Bigger Picture
One viewpoint rarely shows the whole picture. That’s why Superforecasters look for many.
“Look at how foxes approach forecasting. They deploy not one analytical idea but many and seek out information not from one source but many. Then they synthesize it all into a single conclusion. In a word, they aggregate.”
—Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner, Superforecasting
One viewpoint rarely shows the whole picture. That’s why Superforecasters look for many.
They consult diverse sources, weigh multiple perspectives, and then aggregate them. This fox-like thinking makes their forecasts less prone to bias. And it works even better in teams:
“If forecasters can keep questioning themselves and their teammates, and welcome vigorous debate, the group can become more than the sum of its parts.”
Tool tip: Start with the outside view (base rates, historical outcomes) and combine it with your inside view (specifics of the situation). Then add more perspectives until the picture sharpens.
