Superforecasting the Fed: Update

If there is a cut in December, the Superforecasters are on track to beat the futures markets for a third year in a row.

Will the Fed decrease rates again this week? The Superforecasters are at 99% probability for a cut. Meanwhile, the CME futures have caught up with them once again, after having had lower odds of a December cut throughout. Data also reveals that Polymarket simply tracked CME pricing, volatility and all, adding little to no value for decision-makers.

Bottom line: The Superforecasters showed less noise, reflecting genuine uncertainty in their forecasts when it was warranted.

This isn’t an isolated case. If December brings a cut as currently expected, Good Judgment’s Superforecasters be approximately twice as accurate as both Polymarket and CME futures in 2025, and will have outperformed the futures markets for a third consecutive year.

See this LinkedIn post for more details or learn more about FutureFirst, Good Judgment’s forecast monitoring tool.