Superforecasting the Week Ahead: 10 August 2026

Strait of Hormuz, Fujairah Pipeline, and more

Here is what’s on our radar in the week ahead at Good Judgment.

Strait of Hormuz. Superforecasters currently assign a 23% chance that tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels by mid-December. On the one hand, ceasefire proposals, US-UK efforts to protect shipping, and possible agreements involving Iran and Oman could support recovery. On the other, persistent conflict, mines, costly insurance, shipowner caution, and disabled Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking continue to suppress recorded traffic.