Three Reasons Why You Should Attend a Good Judgment Forecasting Workshop
Good Judgment’s data science team has analyzed thousands of forecasts from workshop participants over the years to show impact on accuracy and calibration.
1. Workshop participants boost their accuracy by 28% after a single session.
Over the years we have elicited thousands of forecasts from workshop participants on challenging forecasting questions—including questions that are highly relevant to participants and their bottom line. A pre- and post-session comparison of forecasts shows participants in 2022 increased their average accuracy by 28% as a group (i.e., wisdom of the crowd) and by 17% as individuals when using techniques described in the workshop. These are real, transferrable gains supported by data from a single two-hour workshop session.
2. Workshop participants show a 37% improvement in mitigating cognitive biases.
Our focus on biases routinely comes up as one of the most useful takeaways in post-workshop feedback. Throughout the workshop, we deploy a range of psychometric tests to measure a variety of biases that can lead to poor forecasts. We then teach techniques to detect and mitigate these biases in real-world settings. Pre- and post-session analysis from a November 2022 workshop revealed a 37% reduction in collective bias after workshop training. A better understanding and awareness of biases—knowledge gained via active, experiential participation—goes hand-in-hand with more accurate forecasting and rational decision-making.
3. Attendees are highly likely to recommend the workshop to their peers—but maybe not to their competitors!
At the conclusion of our workshops, we ask participants to describe the most useful feature from the workshop, and we ask how likely each participant is to recommend the workshop to a colleague or friend using a 10-point scale that ranges from Less Likely (1) to More Likely (10).
Here’s what our past attendees say about our workshops:
“…the mix of lecture, examples, and practical exercises was extremely interesting, notably with regards to biases.” -European Government Member, February 2022
“…the back-and-forth between presenting research/concept and the application of that research/concept was very useful.” -Public Workshop Participant, May 2022
“…provided a great insight into forming predictions and conducting analysis in a manner better than traditional structured analytic techniques taught to students of intelligence.” -Public Workshop Participant, September 2022
“The techniques [for individuals] were amazing too, but the management aspects were particularly illuminating.” -European Government Member, February 2022
Converting the 10-point recommendation values to a Net Promoter Score (NPS)—a simple metric of user experience that ranges from -100 to 100—yields a score of 73 for our 2022 workshops, which is widely recognized as the top tier of excellence for NPS scores. It’s easy to see why repeat workshop clients make up a majority of our current and future workshop attendees.