Good Judgment News and Insights

Four Steps to Integrate Probabilities into Decisions

Why the right yes/no boundary beats the default 50%.

Sep 29 • 

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August 2025

Invite your students: The 2025 University Forecasting Challenge

Free | Aug–Dec 2025 | Prizes for eligible students

Aug 25 • 

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What’s a month? Why question wording must be exact in forecasting

Superforecaster Ryan Adler turns a live CNBC disagreement about Tesla shares into a quick guide on clarity. Good forecasting starts with shared…

Aug 7 • 

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July 2025

Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Decomposition of Complex Questions

Clear thinking about big questions starts with a clear understanding of its components.

Jul 15 • 

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June 2025

From a “Happy Coincidence” to Consistent Accuracy: An Interview with Superforecaster Brett Specter

New in our Meet the Superforecasters series!

Jun 30 • 

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May 2025

Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Getting the Bigger Picture

One viewpoint rarely shows the whole picture. That’s why Superforecasters look for many.

May 28 • 

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April 2025

Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Nuance Matters

Just as a painter learns to discern subtle shades, a trained forecaster learns to perceive varying degrees of uncertainty.

Apr 28 • 

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Inside a Superforecaster’s Toolbox: Belief Updating as a Mindset

Great forecasting doesn’t come from confidence—it comes from curiosity.

Apr 8 • 

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March 2025

(Service Update) Sneak Peek: How FutureFirst™ Superforecast Alerts Keep You Ahead

See an example of a Superforecast alert

Mar 11 • 

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January 2025

Good Judgment’s 2024 in Review

Superforecasters always keep score. As we turn the page to 2025 at Good Judgment Inc, we look back at 2024 for highlights, statistics, and key…

Jan 9 • 

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December 2024

Superforecasting® Explained in Podcasts and Videos

Our favourite podcasts and videos that showcase the principles and real-world applications of Superforecasting

Dec 16, 2024 • 

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October 2024

The Superforecasters’ Guide to the 2024 Elections

Join us for the election webinar (free for FutureFirst™ subscribers)

Oct 1, 2024 • 

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